Gumi meteor-rate arithmetic / 流星率の計算例 / 流星数量教学算例
2026-10-08

Run with Python 3 (standard library only):
  python3 meteor-rate-teaching.py > meteor-rate-teaching-results.json

All inputs are hypothetical. These files contain NO actual meteor
observations and NO forecast for the Draconids or any real location.
No sky, weather, Moon, ephemeris, or real-time activity data are fetched.

The five cases assume ZHR=100 and r=2.5, with fixed conditions,
F=1, cp=1, gamma=1. Simplified hourly rate:
  R = ZHR * sin(h) / r**(6.5 - LM)

The source paper is Dubietis & Arlt (2007), MNRAS 376, 890-894:
  https://articles.adsabs.harvard.edu/pdf/2007MNRAS.376..890D
Equations (1) and (3), printed pages 891-892.
The source analysis retained total correction factors C <= 5.
Case D has C=12.5, beyond that selection threshold. It is included
only to show sensitivity; it is not a reliable inverse ZHR estimate.

This teaching script rejects radiant heights <=10 degrees rather than
extrapolating the approximation close to or below the horizon.
It also rejects unknown/nonfinite inputs and zero effective duration.
Its r>1 and LM<=6.5 restrictions are stated teaching-domain choices,
not assertions about the full range of real observing conditions.

The sample log is also hypothetical: 4 unclassified meteors in
25 effective minutes gives an all-meteor raw rate of 9.6/hour.
It does not give a shower-specific rate or a ZHR.

Published pages:
  https://gumi.ink/posts/2026-10-08-how-to-read-meteor-shower-rates/
  https://gumi.ink/ja/posts/2026-10-08-how-to-read-meteor-shower-rates/